SpaceX IPO: $75B Record vs. Morningstar's $63 Fair Value

Photo by Jay Wedgeworth on Unsplash

The thesis: SpaceX's June 12, 2026 IPO raised $75 billion—nearly three times the size of Saudi Aramco's $25.6 billion offering in 2019—and was fast-tracked into the Nasdaq 100 within days, automatically inserting a $2.25 trillion market cap company into the portfolios of every passive index investor tracking that benchmark. The bull case is that space-based AI compute represents the defining infrastructure buildout of the coming decade. The bear case, argued with unusual numerical precision by Morningstar, is that the market is pricing in a future worth more than three times what the underlying business can currently support. As of July 5, 2026, the gap between those two views is the most consequential valuation debate in a generation of investment research.

According to reporting aggregated by Google News, the SpaceX IPO drew more than $250 billion in total demand—a 4x oversubscription—with retail orders alone exceeding $100 billion. Morningstar analysts, whose post-IPO sector analysis drew immediate attention, assigned SPCX a fair value of $63 per share, calling the offering "169% overvalued" against its $135 IPO price.

The Record That Reshaped the Market

$250 billion. That is approximately the total investor demand that poured into SpaceX's order books ahead of its Nasdaq debut on June 12, 2026—a figure that overwhelmed every prior IPO in recorded market history. The company priced at $135 per share, raising $75 billion across 555.6 million Class A shares, and closed its first trading day at $161, a 19% single-session gain. By June 16, 2026, SPCX hit an intraday peak of $225.64 before pulling back; as of June 30, 2026, the stock had stabilized around $153, with a market capitalization of $2.25 trillion—placing SpaceX seventh among the most valuable companies on Earth.

The sheer scale of the deal reshaped passive portfolio exposure overnight. Fast-tracked Nasdaq 100 inclusion means that trillions of dollars in institutional capital tied to that index now automatically carry SPCX exposure, regardless of whether individual investors chose to take a position. The week before the offering, SpaceX announced a $30 billion deal with Google covering cloud infrastructure and satellite connectivity expansion—a transaction that added tangible near-term revenue context to the offering narrative. Congressional stock purchase disclosures filed in early July 2026, per CNBC reporting on Representatives Meuser and Cisneros, showed multiple U.S. lawmakers bought SPCX shares in the wake of the record IPO.

Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $25.6 billion had stood for seven years. SpaceX eclipsed it by a factor of approximately three in a single session—a market-structure event that analysts in investment research circles are still digesting.

The Evidence — What the Underlying Business Actually Shows

Strip the narrative away and SpaceX is a company with $18.674 billion in 2025 full-year revenue, a net loss of $4.9 billion for the same period, and an accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion as of March 31, 2026. Starlink, the satellite connectivity segment, generated $11.4 billion—61% of total revenue—making it the clear operational engine of the current business. The launch and government contract division is operationally impressive but capital-intensive in ways that show up directly in that accumulated deficit figure.

The bull case rests almost entirely on forward projections, and the divergence between analysts is striking. Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter on the deal, projects SpaceX total revenue will reach $474 billion by 2030, with the AI division alone generating $322 billion—roughly a 100x increase from current levels driven by space-based data center deployment. Morgan Stanley extends that arc significantly further: $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—a proxy for operating cash generation) exceeding $2.7 trillion, and the AI segment contributing $190 billion by 2030.

Both projections are anchored in SpaceX's February 2026 merger with Elon Musk's AI company xAI, which combined at a $1.25 trillion valuation. The entity has filed with the FCC for regulatory approval to launch up to 1 million satellites configured as a networked orbital data center constellation supporting AI workloads. Musk stated publicly: "My estimate is that within two to three years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space," citing AI's power demands as "not sustainable on Earth without imposing hardship on communities and the environment." The xAI division currently burns $1 billion per month; IPO proceeds are expected to fund the orbital infrastructure buildout targeting initial deployment as early as 2028.

Chart: IPO capital raised comparison — Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $25.6 billion versus SpaceX's June 2026 offering of $75 billion. Source: research data current as of July 5, 2026.

Photo by Joan Gamell on Unsplash

The Bear Case Deserves Better Than a Paragraph

Morningstar's research team assigned SpaceX a fair value of $780 billion—48% below the $1.5 trillion private market valuation that preceded the IPO—translating to $63 per share, roughly two-thirds less than the $135 offering price. Their label of "169% overvalued" is not a casual dismissal; it reflects a specific concern that the xAI merger represents a "material threat of value destruction," not a value-additive transaction for public shareholders. That distinction matters because Musk holds over 82% voting control of the combined entity post-IPO, limiting minority shareholder recourse if strategic decisions favor xAI's interests over SPCX shareholders.

The analytical math behind the bull case deserves scrutiny. Goldman's $474 billion revenue forecast for 2030 requires approximately a 25x increase in the top line in four years, beginning from a business that posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 while carrying $41.3 billion in accumulated losses. Morgan Stanley's $3.4 trillion revenue projection for 2040 requires sustained execution across satellite AI compute deployment, FCC regulatory approvals for up to 1 million orbital assets, global Starlink subscriber expansion, and xAI commercialization—each carrying independent failure risk. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs served as lead underwriter on the deal, which creates a structural incentive to publish constructive research on the offering.

The retail allocation sequence adds another dimension to the risk picture. Demand was so intense that the originally planned 30% retail allocation was cut to the "low 20s percentage" before launch. Retail investors who received shares at $135 have since seen prices range between approximately $153 and an intraday high of $225.64—within the first three weeks of trading. That kind of volatility in a stock now embedded in Nasdaq 100 index funds also affects investors who never made a conscious decision to own it. Investors tracking the broader AI infrastructure theme may find useful context in this analysis of how AI-driven inflation is fracturing Fed policy, since the cost of capital directly affects the economics of capital-intensive orbital buildouts like the one SpaceX's valuation depends on.

Watchlist — Metrics and Dates Worth Tracking

For investors conducting their own stock analysis on SPCX, the following specific indicators are worth monitoring:

• Starlink subscriber growth and revenue per user: As of 2025, Starlink generated $11.4 billion—61% of total revenue. Acceleration in this segment is the most near-term falsifiable evidence for or against the bull case, separate from speculative AI projections.
• xAI monthly burn rate trajectory: The unit consumes $1 billion per month as of the IPO disclosure. Any sustained increase narrows the runway funded by the $75 billion raise and could pressure the timeline for orbital AI infrastructure deployment.
• FCC regulatory ruling on the 1-million-satellite constellation: No confirmed approval date exists as of July 5, 2026. A delay or rejection would directly challenge Goldman's $322 billion AI revenue estimate for 2030.
• First orbital data center deployment milestone (target: 2028): This is the single most falsifiable near-term claim in the SpaceX AI thesis. Engineering progress updates and amended FCC filings serve as leading indicators.
• Morningstar fair-value revision: Their $63 estimate predates active public trading. An upward revision signals analyst convergence toward market pricing; a maintained or reduced estimate keeps the overvaluation debate structurally open.
• Nasdaq 100 quarterly rebalancing flows: Fast-tracked inclusion means passive demand is already partially priced in. Weight adjustments in subsequent rebalancing cycles could create episodic buying or selling pressure independent of fundamentals.

Frequently Asked Questions

In my analysis, the most underappreciated structural consequence of this deal is not the valuation debate itself—it is the passive index mechanism. Nasdaq 100 inclusion means the Morningstar bear case is no longer purely academic; it is a risk already distributed across millions of retirement accounts whose holders never consciously chose exposure to a company carrying $41.3 billion in accumulated losses and a $1 billion-per-month AI division burn rate. The asymmetry here—where the upside requires a specific, highly speculative orbital AI future to materialize on a compressed timeline, while downside is already embedded passively and broadly—is worth researching carefully. The data is available. The framework for evaluating it is clear. The decision, as always, belongs to the investor.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement of any security. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Research based on publicly available sources current as of July 5, 2026.